The impact of ACF on transmission dynamics of TB: A modelling study

We adopted a dynamic transmission model that incorporates heterogeneity in risk to TB to assess the impact of an ACF programme (IMPACT TB) on reducing TB incidence in Vietnam and Nepal. We fitted the models to country-level incidence data using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. We assessed the impact of ACF using a parameter in our model, which we term the treatment success rate. Using programmatic data, we estimate how much this parameter has increased as a result of IMPACT TB in the implementation districts of Vietnam and Nepal and quantify additional efforts needed to eliminate transmission of TB in these countries by 2035.

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